The Golden State Warriors look to defend their home court when they host the Boston Celtics in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday. The Warriors beat the Celtics 107-97 in Game 4 to even the series 2-2 behind a historic performance from Stephen Curry.
Projected Starting Lineups and Roster
Golden State Warriors
*Notates expected starter
C: Kevon Looney*, Jonathan Kuminga
PF: Draymond Green*, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Andre Iguodala
SF: Andrew Wiggins*, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica
SG: Klay Thompson*, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee
PG: Stephen Curry*, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody
Boston Celtics
*Notates expected starter
C: Robert Williams III*, Daniel Theis
PF: Al Horford*, Grant Williams, Luke Kornet
SF: Jayson Tatum*, Aaron Nesmith, Sam Hauser
SG: Jaylen Brown*, Payton Pritchard, Nik Stauskas
PG: Marcus Smart*, Derrick White
DafaNews Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Boston Celtics 2.56
• Golden State Warriors 1.57
Spread
• Boston Celtics +4.5 (1.85)
• Golden State Warriors -4.5 (1.96)
Total
• Over 211.5 (1.88)
• Under 211.5 (1.93)
Betting Trends
The Celtics are:
• 32-17 ATS in road games this season
• 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog
• 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog
• 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against a team with a winning home record
• 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games
• 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
• 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game
• 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600
The Under is:
• 11-4 in Boston’s last 15 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 12-3 in Golden State’s last 15 games against a team with a winning straight up record
• 18-6 in the last 24 meetings
• 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Golden State
Projected Leaders
For the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is expected to score 26.9 points with 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists, making 8.5 field goals in 20.3 attempts.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is projected to finish with 27.4 points, 8.1 assists and 4.9 rebounds, making 8.1 field goals in 19.6 attempts.
Keys to Game 5
Stephen Curry exploded for 43 points and 10 rebounds in Game 4, single-handedly deflating and demoralizing one of the toughest defenses in basketball on pure skill and shot making.
The Warriors have too many weapons and this is what happens when Stephen Curry makes ridiculous shots, with range at the right time. Nobody is scarier with a lead than Curry. That said, outside of Curry, the Warriors lack consistent creation but as a team they are just so lethal because they score in bunches.
Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins bring a burst of athleticism, energy and scoring outside of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to the Warriors. Wiggins keeps proving that he can do it all: score, defend, rebound, pass, hustle and play off the ball.
Don’t overreact with Game 4. In the playoffs, when a team wins it may seem like they won’t lose again and when they lose, it may seem like they won’t win again.
This is still an uphill battle for the Warriors but it was a potential momentum changing performance. The Celtics have lived and died by the 3-point shot all year long and never did it kill them more than on Friday. That was a crucial game but the Celtics are the more complete team, they were 15 of 38 (39.5 percent) from beyond the arc and I anticipate positive regression.
Analyst’s Picks
Celtics +4.5 (1.85) and Under 211.5 (1.93)
Three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend picks on the Celtics and the total in this one. Average score in simulations is Boston Celtics 109.3 to Golden State Warriors 108.8.
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