Burnley faces a very tough test when they host Manchester City on Saturday. Burnley is coming off a 2-0 road loss against Brentford on March 12 while Manchester City had a 0-0 road draw against Crystal Palace on March 14. Manchester City leads the Premier League standings with 70 points in 29 games while Burnley is in 19th place with 21 points in 27 games.
The player to watch in this game is Riyad Mahrez, who has 10 goals and four assists in 22 Premier League games this season. AccuScore gives Mahrez a 32.48 percent chance to score against Burnley. He has 48 SCA and 6 GCA in 22 Premier League games this season.
FBRef defines SCA as “the two offensive actions leading directly to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” GCA is “the two offensive actions leading directly to a goal, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
DafaNews Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Burnley: 13.00
• Manchester City: 1.22
• Draw: 6.40
Spread
• Burnley: +1.5, +2: 2.04
• Manchester City: -1.5, -2: 1.89
Total
• Over 3: 1.93
• Under 3: 1.97
Key Points to Consider
Last 5: Burnley, coming off a 2-0 road loss against Brentford on March 12, have 3 losses, 1 win and 1 draw in their last 5 Premier League games.
Manchester City, coming off a 0-0 road draw against Crystal Palace on March 14, have 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw in their last 5 Premier League games.
Momentum: Burnley has been on a downward trend — with 3 losses in their last 5 Premier League games.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on October 16, 2021 and Manchester City won 2-0.
Projected Leaders
For Burnley, Wout Weghorst has a 21.16 percent chance to score. He averages 1.13 shots overall per sim, 0.63 shots on goal per and 0.24 goals per sim.
For Manchester City, Riyad Mahrez has a 32.48 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 1.49 shots overall per sim, 0.81 shots on goal per and 0.39 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Manchester City Moneyline.
Four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on Manchester City in this one. Average score in simulations is Manchester City 1.85 to Burnley 0.63.
