In what might be one of the more competitive matches this weekend, we’ll turn our attention to Vicarage Road as Watford and Burnley match up. Both sides enter this one following a win their last time out.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

•Watford FC: 2.33

•Draw: 3.36

•Burnley FC: 3.31

Spread

•Watford FC -0.5: 2.26

•Burnley FC +0.5: 1.67

Total

•Over 2.5: 2.09

•Under 2.5: 1.81

Key Points to Consider

Last 6: Watford, coming off a 2-0 road win vs Norwich, has 1 win, 2 losses and 3 draws in their last six overall. Burnley, coming off a 3-0 home win vs West Ham, have 2 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw in their last six.

Some Numbers: Burnley are No. 4 in the league with 4 clean sheets. They are No. 5 in the league in 52 blocks, continuing to use their defense to remain competitive most weeks.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on Jan. 19, 2019 when they finished in a scoreless draw.

Projected Leaders

Ashley Barnes has a 30-to-31 percent chance to score for Burnley this weekend. Barnes averages 1.97 shots overall per sim, 0.72 shots on goal per and 0.36 goals per sim.

For Watford, Gerard Deulofeu has a 28 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 2.52 shots overall per sim, 1.04 shots on goal, 0.33 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Burnley +0.5

Whereas odds-makers have Burnley as slight favorites, they actually win more sims than do Watford. Average score in sims is 1.16 – 1.12, in favor of Burnley.

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